US exports of carbon border adjusted goods to the European Union, set against total US heavy-industry trade with the world.
Author: Jia-Shen Tsai, Niskanen Center
Eurostat ComextUN ComtradeUS Census Bureau
Context: the EU CBAM definitive regime took effect on January 1, 2026, ending the transitional (reporting-only) phase. Figures below compare 2026 with the same months of prior years. Headline figures follow the selected tab and the value/weight view: EU-reported imports within CBAM scope (hydrogen excluded from totals as negligible), US domestic exports by HS chapter (re-exports excluded), or US trade with the world. All values are nominal and not seasonally adjusted.
EU-reported imports from the United States (Eurostat Comext), restricted to the CN codes covered by the CBAM regulation. This is the closest available measure of the trade that EU customs assesses under CBAM. Values in EUR. Quantity in tonnes is the more reliable indicator of shifts in trade flows because it is unaffected by price changes. Hydrogen uses US-reported data (US Census Bureau, USD) because the Comext series contains an implausible August 2025 entry at otherwise negligible volumes.
US exports to and imports from the world, 2019–2025
Two-way trade volume offers a first indication of trade exposure for each sector. Select a sector:
How much does the EU matter to each sector?
EU share of US exports, 2025 full year versus 2026 year to date. A declining share after January 2026 would be the most direct indication that US exporters are turning away from the EU market.
Sector summary, 2025
Monthly exports to the EU, by year
Annual exports to the EU and EU share of US exports, 2019–2025